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000 FXUS66 KPQR 111015
AFDPQRArea Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
215 AM PST Sat Jan 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Scattered snow showers over the Cascades through
this weekend while most locations remain dry. Dry weather
prevails next week through at least Wednesday night as high
pressure re-builds. Overnight temperatures will likely be colder
early next week, leading to potentially frosty mornings. Chances
of light precipitation return late in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Now through Friday...Expect quieter weather
with onshore flow this weekend across northwest Oregon and
southwest Washington. Conditions will begin to dry out for most
locations today, but expect some scattered showers over high
terrain due to orographic lift. On Sunday, models suggest a
shortwave trough dropping down from the north and quickly
brushing the region, returning brief chances of light
precipitation. Most locations remain relatively dry as
forecast rainfall amounts are less than 0.05 inch. Snow levels
are forecast around 2000-3000 feet this weekend, with minimal
impacts to the Cascades. Weekend snowfall amounts are forecast
between 0.1 to 3 inches through the passes.
A high pressure ridge builds over the Pacific Northwest early
next week, bringing dry weather with return of offshore flow
and clear skies through at least Wednesday night. Radiational
cooling and calm winds will support much colder overnight
temperatures and widespread frost development. Low temps each
night early next week are forecast in the upper 20s to low 30s
for locations west of the Cascades, and upper teens to mid 20s
across the Cascades and Upper Hood River Valley. NBM
probabilities for falling below 28 degrees in the Willamette
Valley are currently 10-20%, however, the probability rises
(30-50%) for more rural, outlying areas. Expect sunny afternoons
with highs in the 40s.
Thursday to Friday, precipitation chances return as models hint
at a weak front approaching the region. Currently, only 30-40%
of ensemble members show measurable precipitation returning to
the area. -Alviz
&&
.AVIATION...Mainly VFR and scattered showers across the area this
morning under a broken mid level cloud deck, with intermittent
MVFR conditions being reported in a few locations. Could see a
few pockets of fog develop and produce short lived IFR/LIFR
conditions through 16z where there are a few breaks in the cloud
cover, but the probability of this occurring at any one terminal
remains low (~10%) through the morning. Otherwise, expect same
general conditions to persist through the TAF period as northwest
flow regime remains over the region through early Sunday. Guidance
shows increasing probability of MVFR cigs developing at inland
terminals 06-12z Sun.
PDX AND APPROACHES...Mainly VFR through the period, with
intermittent bouts of MVFR in passing showers. Probability for
MVFR conditions increases to 60% after 06z Sun. Winds remaining
below 10 kt. /CB
&&
.MARINE...Brisk northwest flow continues across the coastal waters
today with high pressure anchored well offshore, yielding strong
breezes with widespread gusts to 25 kt through tonight. Seas will
remain in the 10-13 ft range today as a mid period swell
continues to move through the waters, maintaining advisory
conditions through early Sunday morning. Conditions will slowly
improve on Sunday as winds start to diminish and seas subside
below 10 ft. Expect relatively benign conditions during the first
half of next week as high pressure moves overhead and promotes
lighter offshore breezes. Seas will remain dominated by mid period
westerly swell, generally in the 7-9 ft range. /CB
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ210.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for PZZ251>253-
271>273.
&&
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